Strange Phenomena

By HANK ROWLAND The Brunswick News

11They're all the nation has at the moment to explain abnormal phenomena occurring along its coastline, including the seashore of Georgia's Golden Isles.

While environmentalists and those who oppose them continue to play tug-of-war with facts and sometimes thin hypotheses, scientists are working diligently to find an explanation.

Consider these strange occurrences, all of which sound like fodder for a script for the early 1960s television series "The Twilight Zone":

* The basic makeup of the ocean from the Northeast to the mid-Atlantic states is changing.

* Tides along the entire Eastern Seaboard are creeping higher than normal, anywhere from 6 inches to 2 feet higher.

* The temperature of the ocean is getting warmer.

And that's not counting the mysterious die-off of large patches of marsh on the state's coastline earlier this decade.

Who or what is to blame? Man? Nature? Both?

Everyone has a theory, beginning with the marsh die-offs.

While marshes in Georgia appear healthy today, they were wilting and disappearing in expanding swatches in 2002 and for several years afterward. Acres of spartina grass were dying, and for no explicable reason.

The best state biologists were able to come up with as a probable suspect was the extended drought that had gripped most of Georgia, Jan McKinnon, a biologist with the Coastal Resources Division of DNR, told The News last summer.

The ocean is another story. Strange things are happening with increasing frequency, keeping scientists on their toes and environmentalists shouting for changes in policies and habits.

But before the theme to "The Twilight Zone" grabs your imagination, know this: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says anomalies for something that covers 71 percent of the planet can be expected.

That's NOAA's conclusion for higher-than-usual sea levels recorded in June and July. An analysis of data it collected points to persistent winds and a weakened current in the Mid-Atlantic as the likely culprits, it said.

"The ocean is dynamic and it's not uncommon to have anomalies," said Mike Szabados, director of NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, releasing details of the uncommon occurrence Aug. 31. "What made this event unique was its breadth, intensity and duration."

Aggravating the situation was the perigean-spring tide, which occurs when the moon is closest to the Earth. It exerts a heavier than normal gravitational pull on the tides.

Sounds good, but it may not be the whole story. There may be more.

"The report is a good first assessment," said NOAA Oceanographer William Sweet. "However, NOAA, with our academic partners, should continue to investigate the broader causes behind the event. Further analysis is needed to fully understand what is driving the patterns we observed."

Hiding under the bed yet? Well, how about his: Temperature-wise, the oceans were hotter this summer than during any other recorded time during the past 130 years.

The National Climatic Data Center, which keeps up with weather records, said oceans, overall, were 1.1 degrees warmer than they were throughout the entire 20th century. One possible explanation given - the fall-guy for most everything else unexplainable that happens with the weather - is El NiÃ±o, the change in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather around the globe.

But man doesn't get away scot-free. He has a lot to do with the changing make-up of the oceans, the changing ecosystems. Responsible parties include warmer water, fishing patterns, pollution and habitat loss, NOAA notes.

David Kyler, director of the Center for a Sustainable Coast, on St. Simons Island, says that climate change is a primary culprit and that people should become concerned, if they're not already.

"Climate change is widely recognized as a major factor that is already affecting all coastlines worldwide," Kyler said. "As impacts of global warming continue to be monitored by scientists, projected rise in the elevation of sea level justifies increasing concern about coastal development, especially near shorelines."

And it's getting worse, he said

"Based on the most recent data on polar ice melting caused by warmer temperatures, the rate of rising oceans appears to be increasing," Kyler says. "Fifteen years ago, ocean rise was predicted to be less than a foot a century and now the average 100-year projection is triple that. As warming continues, sea levels are likely to rise further in the coming decade."

That's not good news for the Georgia Coast, Kyler says. It could mean more than just getting your feet wet.

"(Along) with rising oceans, more intense coastal storms, flooding, and wind-driven surges are expected, too," he said.

"Building near shores and marshes has always had risks, but these hazards are becoming significantly greater. We, at the Center for a Sustainable Coast, urge coastal residents, developers, and public officials to consider these factors as they affect the interests of Georgians, as both property owners and taxpayers."

Kyler recommends against procrastination.

"We had better prepare ourselves for adverse trends in global warming," he said. " By mid-century we are likely to see at least a foot rise in sea level. In coastal Georgia that would mean a high tide going, on average, about 200 feet farther landward than it does now. Proportional incursions of water can be expected along all waterfront areas affected by tidal influence."

Kyler says there are other strategies the nation could be effecting to minimize the impact of an environment gone awry.

"Reducing the extent of damage will require an unyielding commitment to cutting back greenhouse gases," Kyler said. "This means accelerating conversion to clean energy sources, like wind and solar power, which have already proven to be extremely practical in many areas throughout the world.

Daniel Parshley, project manager for Glynn Environmental Coalition, a environmental watchdog group, says he can't predict the future.

"All we can speak to for sure is what we are observing and what these observations might mean to our quality of life and economy in coastal Georgia," he said. "Major natural events - volcanoes, massive dust storms, fires - can shape the face of the Earth in many ways and far faster than anything man can do, short of a nuclear event."

But if he had to draw conclusions, it would go something like this: Man is responsible for what's happening today.

"A by-product of the industrial revolution has been the influx of many chemicals that never were on the Earth until recently," Parshley said. "Eventually, all these chemicals make their way to the ocean and we are now seeing many accumulate in food fish.

"All the implications to ocean life and mankind have not been determined, but what we now know indicates action is needed now if wild fish stocks are to remain a viable food source. As waters warm to greater depths, conditions become favorable for fish usually seen further south, and temperature-sensitive species move to areas and conditions more to their liking."

Parshley said evidence of this is as near as the Georgia coast.

"Notable is the Lion Fish, which has toxic spines and eats economically important fish, like snapper and grouper," he said. "Other fish which were rarely seen are now more common."

He says the warming of ocean waters is how the Earth copes with increased energy from the sun being retained in the atmosphere.

"How this heat energy is released or expressed in nature can have profound effects on coastal Georgia," Parshley says. "Warm water expands, and with the land subsidence in coastal Georgia, the two result in the ocean appearing to rise."

He foresees happening what Kyler says is in store for the future.

"Warm water is also the fuel for storms and hurricanes," he said. "Economically, the rise in ocean levels and the potential for more and stronger storms can have profound implications. Insurance can go up and property (values) down as insurance becomes prohibitively expensive."